Monday, March 13, 2023

Possession Is Nine-Tenths Of The Fun


In former days, I used to pontificate - not infrequently - on general topics and trends affecting the mmorpg genre. I guess we all did, even though, by the time I came to the table, many of those themes and arguments had already been reduced to the blandest of mush by repeated rehashing. Still, that never seemed to stop anyone coming back for yet another helping. All you had to do was refer to the dead, dry horsemeat you were chewing in an arch, ironic or just plain world-weary way, so as to let people know you knew how long past its use-by date it was and you were good for another mouthful.

These days I see very few posts like that. The veterans seem to have worn out the tread on those tires at last and the newcomers have entirely different interests and concerns. This part of the blogosphere, once a support system for people with a very similar, niche set of interests - mmorpgs, basically - some time ago morphed into something much broader and - if we're objective about it - more interesting.

For years there's been an increased focus on general gaming and wider entertainment concerns, with reviews and opinions of music, movies, books, sports and TV all increasingly finding their place. There's also been a great deal more openness, a greater willingness to share personal details on everything from from lifestyle and employment to mental and physical health. 

Back when I was only reading blogs, before I had one of my own, I'd have been very hard to put to tell you anything about most of the bloggers I followed beyond what mmorpgs they played and possibly their gender and approximate age. Now the whole weblog thing has turned full circle, it seems, bringing back the original idea of a personal journal everyone can read. 


It's hard to say if I prefer it that way or if I've just become used to it. I think the former. There's only so many times you can fulminate over the way instant travel or flying mounts ruin the whole concept of a virtual world or argue passionately in favor or against the importance of the leveling process. These and dozens more shibboleths that seemed like hills worth dying on a decade ago now barely register as speed bumps in the rush to get to the good stuff, whatever that might be.

All of which brings me nicely, if circuitously, to my topic for the day: getting to the good stuff. Anyone would think I planned it this way. I didn't, in case anyone was in any doubt. I just type and the magic happens.

By "Getting to the good stuff" in this case, I mean getting your hands on a playable game. At all. I was pushed down this line of thinking by a couple of things that came my way recently. One was this news item at MassivelyOP. In it, Marc Jacobs, CEO of City State, the company producing long-delayed RvR mmorpg Camelot Unchained, boldly states

 "...we are almost at where I wanted us to be by summer ... we’re ahead of schedule. I really couldn’t be happier about that if I tried."

I don't always see eye to eye with MOP's editorial policies but one thing I do have to give them credit for is the way they consistently hold statements like this up to scrutiny by simply appending a clear and evidenced timeline giving context and history to whatever's being claimed. As the list of links at the bottom of the short piece confirms, Camelot Unchained, which began as a Kickstarted project, has been in development for a decade now and in closed beta for five years. If that's "ahead of schedule" I think I need a new dictionary.


I didn't back CU, luckily for me but I did back another forever game (As in it's taking forever to get finished.) Ashes of Creation. I didn't just back it, I backed it twice; I bought in once for myself and once for Mrs. Bhagpuss. 

The Kickstarter for that one wasn't quite as long ago as the one for Camelot Unchained, just a mere five and a half years. AoC, however, doesn't even have the fig-leaf of a closed beta to hide behind. As the Release Schedule on the wiki says, that's still "To be announced".

Given that, when I signed up for this thing back in October 2017, the Kickstarter gave an "Estimated Delivery" date of December 2018, I think it's safe to say the studio behind the game, Intrepid, overshot the mark somewhat. Undershot. Whatever.

If there's one thing you can say for Intrepid, though, it's that they communicate. There's no hint or suggestion that work on the project isn't ongoing. I get constant emails about the progress they're making. It never seems to be much although you wouldn't know it from how enthusiastic they all sound..


The latest in an endless series of relentlessly upbeat messages, informing us all how well the game is doing behind those closed doors, bangs on at inordinate length about the wonders of the UI they're building. It's not the most glamorous of topics to begin with but as Heartless Gamer puts it on his newly-revitalized blog, 

"As with the recent class updates the UI update this month was a typical lackluster update.  A developer was brought on and talked about their team and their approach. Then some screenshots were shown of different UI components which were followed by yet more screenshots of sample user interface windows which were followed by... more screenshots.  !  I don't think once during the UI update we saw an actual functioning UI overlaying a game being played."

It's too true. I barely scan AoC updates any more because they go on forever and tell us nothing. By comparison, Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen, for example, is an open book. They post massively long updates, too, but in them you can watch people playing the game for hours at a stretch and even at the pre-alpha stage it very much looks like a bunch of people in an mmorpg having a great time.

From watching a handful of Pantheon videos I know it's definitely a game I want to play. From watching the dozens of videos Intrepid have sent me, I still can't say with any confidence what sort of a game it even is! And that's a major problem.


I signed up for the AoC Kickstarter for two reasons: firstly, it was being made by a team filled with people who'd worked on other mmorpgs I'd enjoyed and secondly because the game was supposedly due out in a year or so. Not being completely naive, I never expected a finished game by Christmas but I did think I might get one inside three years, given that would be triple the time they said it would take.

Obviously, I know better now. Pretty much no Kickstarted mmorpg comes out within hailing distance of its estimated delivery date and plenty of them either never arrive at all or limp out the gate in such a spavined, emaciated form they're dead on their feet in a couple of months and just plain dead soon after.

If it was just a matter of patience, that would be problem enough but these kinds of timescales have much deeper implications than mere fractiousness over not getting something you've paid for when someone said you'd get it. Lead times spiraling from years into decades inevitably run up against two much less transient issues: growth and mortality.

I'm not the same person I was five years ago, when I put my money down for a new mmorpg called Ashes of Creation. No-one is. Back then, I was still excited by the genre, keen to see every new thing as soon as I could get my foot on the bandwagon. Now? Not so much. 


Mrs Bhagpuss, for whom I bought a copy and with whom I was planning on playing, has moved on from the hobby altogether. She prefers crafting in real life to crafting in virtual worlds now and she currently plays no mmorpgs. She says she'll pick it up again some day but even if she does I'm fairly sure Ashes of Creation won't be the game to bring her back. To different degrees, we've both aged past the window of opportunity that Kickstarter appeared to open.

And we're still ageing. I'll be 65 this year. At the glacial rate of development Intrepid are employing I will certainly be retired by the time the game comes out (Assuming it ever does). Even trusting in continued health sufficient to allow me to play it when and if that happens, at current rates of progress I could quite possibly be in my seventies. Am I still going to be interested then?

And it's not just because I'm old. If games take a decade to arrive, people who were interested in them in their teens, twenties or thirties are even more likely to have moved on from the hobbies of their youth by the time they get that once-coveted invite to closed beta. At least I have the advantage of being set in my ways!

It seems to me that the lead times for mmorpgs have spiraled out of all reason. Star Citizen sucks all the air out of the room in any discussion of delayed development but it's only the most outrageous example of a development trend that's now so entrenched people don't even bother to complain about it all that much any more. It's no wonder so many games go into Early Access or eternal beta while unfinished but approximately playable. Just look at the alternative.



In the end, the question isn't why so many developers start taking money for games that are clearly still under development. So long as it's done in good faith, with the team continuing to work on bringing the title up to code, I don't have an issue with that. It's really no different from back when mmorpgs would launch with a nominally playable base game and charge a subscription to play it while all the polish and most of the content got added in patches, month after month after month.

No, my complaint is with the companies who keep their doors firmly bolted shut after taking money up front, issuing endless, relentlessly cheery progress bulletins but never actually coming up with anything anyone can damn well play. As far as AoC goes, in all honesty I'd almost rather they'd kept the Battle Royale spin-off they were so criticized for wasting time on and junked the mmo. At least I got to play that.

It's not even a matter of a refund. After five years it's a sunk cost I don't care about getting back. Even if it was an option, I couldn't be bothered to do the paperwork. The point is, when and if the game ever does reach second closed beta or whatever my designated opt-in point might be, I can pretty much guarantee I won't care enough to do more than make a character, write a post or two and forget about it again. Always assuming I'm still capable of using a mouse and keyboard by then.

After years of this kind of thing, which seemed so exciting once upon a time, I find I hugely prefer games that just appear out of nowhere, arriving in a flurry of publicity around a launch that's only weeks away. That does seem to be an incipient trend of its own now. I can only hope it continues and grows. 

The two new mmorpgs I've most enjoyed in the last year - Chimeraland and Noah's Heart - fit that bill. I was playing both a matter of months after I first learned of their existence. They may not be as ambitious or full-featured as Camelot Unchained and Ashes of Creation but they're here and they work. I'll take that over any number of unfulfilled promises any day.

11 comments:

  1. There is something to be said about hype having a limited shelf life. The sort of "age of kickstarters" from about a decade back has not panned out. It isn't just that they are late, but that enthusiasm can only be sustained for so long and, as you note, we change, the genre changes, the world changes. Oddly, the title doing the best is likely Star Citizen, having found some magic in continuing to roll out promises to keep its fan base happy. I don't know how sustainable that is. I keep waiting for the bottom to fall out, for them to reach the limits of credulity in the eyes of their supporters, but somehow they haven't gotten there yet.

    As for rehashing old topics, I might have a desiccated corpse of a too oft beaten horse to drag out again this week. We shall see.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I look forward to that.

      I find Star Citizen fascinating, as much for the animosity it generates as for the bizarre nature of the project itself. I think it's self-evident that what Chris Roberts is selling has very little to do with gaming at all and far more to do with collecting. If the "game" ever does come ouit it's going to be more of a display case for the ships people ahve collected than anything else.

      About the most surprising thing about the project at this point is that it's been so litle copied. I imagine most of the people who might have spun up their own versions have been too distracted by blockchain and NFTs to notice where gamers with deep pockets really go to spend their money.

      Delete
  2. I do have to wonder whether a lot of Kickstarter proposals suffer from what I call "Perpetual Optimism Syndrome". (POS works too, for the "other" acronym that POS comes up with.) I see POS all the time at work, no matter what company I work for: people in charger will overestimate a team's output and underestimate the amount of debugging required for a project. Doesn't matter what the project is, it works for any project. I guess it's human nature to be biased toward an optimistic view of what people can accomplish, despite numerous examples shown otherwise. (I think I personally overestimated the number of hours I'd need for a project exactly once in the past 30+ years of work; typically I underestimate by a little bit but occasionally it's a doozy.)

    When this gets translated into business models for Kickstarter campaigns, the people pushing the proposals have a cascading series of underestimations, and those translate into Kickstarter being sucked up far quicker than anticipated. Or the teams discover they have to make do a pot of money smaller than what they truly need. Or, in some cases, the money is blown on things that make you scratch your head.

    (An uncle --who is a contractor/builder by trade-- once told me of this guy he knew who was a contractor, and he got a loan for work on a house he was going to renovate. What was the first thing the guy did when he got the loan? He bought a pickup truck. My uncle told me that the guy already had a pickup truck, but decided he needed a new one. Then the guy began complaining of running short of cash for the project. My uncle just shook his head and refused to get involved with that project.)

    So... If human nature taught me anything, it's to see just how far a crowdfunding request is along the road to completion as a pure baseline to backing a project. Those farthest along get the strongest consideration, unless the company involved has a great track record of completing projects. Such as the wargaming company GMT, who has been "crowdfunding" their board games for decades now using their P500 system: if they receive 500+ preorders for one of their games --typically at a 40-50% discount-- they will move forward with the completion of the project. Even then, P500 backers aren't charged until the game is ready for shipping, so GMT just basically recoups the cost of finishing and printing a game.

    Then again, you'd have thought that someone with the reputation of Chris Roberts wouldn't have turned Star Citizen into such a money sink along the lines of Ashes of Creation. (Or maybe it's the other way around.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. More than 30 years in, I have long since decided that software developers are the most optimistic people in the world. It doesn't matter how many times unforeseen complications or other issues come up in their career, with each new project they'll jump on board the most optimistic timelines because it couldn't possibly take that long.

      There used to be a rule for project managers communicating dev estimates to senior management: Take the estimate, double it, then go up one unit of measure. So when a dev says it will take a day... and I've worked with devs for whom there is no task that will take more than a day... you put two weeks on the schedule.

      I have an image I paste into our dev team chat every once in a while when things are really going off the rails. It says:

      We do this not because it is easy,
      But because we thought it would be easy.

      Delete
    2. I could give you an anecdote that demonstrates the principle from my immediate working situation but I'd like to keep my job so I won't ;)

      Kickstarter itself is kind of the problem, I think. The way campaigns there are structured seems to require timelines and promises that aren't at all appropriate to the stage of development involved, which is frequently nothing more than some concept art and a few names. Also, clearly any type of project whose lead time would be expected to be measured in years is an inappropriate subject for this kind of populist funding. They ought not to allow entire mmorpgs onto the platform at all although Kickstarting specific aspects, like raising a rational amount to hire a composer or an artist to produce a particular piece of work for a game might be reasonable.

      Delete
  3. That was a great general topic MMO post, for all that the first third of it was about how all or most of the horses are dead :-)

    I stopped backing kickstarters after getting burned on the first 2/3 of them. I am happy that I backed Project Gorgon, and I backed a Shadowrun game that looks great and I have never played much. I keep dutifully moving the files to each new PC though, so maybe I will go further than the first five minutes (to make sure it runs ok) one day.

    Camelot Unchained was the last MMO I backed. At this point it could hit full release tomorrow and I am not sure I'd even download it. As I have gotten older, my interest in and tolerance for PvP has gone down, and that appears as if PvP is all that will be on offer. I can't remember what I spent, but as far as I'm concerned that money is just gone now. After so many years I certainly no longer miss it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks! It was fun to write one again for a change of pace.

      I didn't back CU either but I was planning on playing it. RvR is probably Mrs Bhagpuss's favorite part of mmorpgs other than crafting and she'd almost certainly have been interested, had the game come out seven or even five years ago. Now, though, it's far too late. I'll still probably take a look if it ever launches or better yet goes into open beta for a while but there's no chance at all I'll play it seriously. I wonder if anyone will?

      Project Gorgon is kind of the anti-Camelot Unchained in that it was already playable - enjoyable so and for free - before the third Kickstarter even succeeded. I mostly backed it as an expression of solidarity. Even though I've been able to play it for years now, I never do. LIke you, though, I don't regret the investment, pointless though it now seems.

      Delete
  4. I just counted. During my active Kickstarter usage, I backed 37 projects. Of that 37, I played on (The Banner Saga) and didn't like it much. How many of the 37 actually came out? Maybe half? I'm not even sure and don't care enough about ANY of them at this point to check.

    So yeah, right there with you. I'll be 63 in a few months and my tastes have definitely changed since I last backed a game, which looks like it was in 2015 or so.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thirty-seven is a lot. I think I might have backed half a dozen at most. The Banner Saga wasn't one of them but oddly I have played it. It was free on Amazon Prime, I think, or one of the platforms. I quite liked it although not enough to play the follow-up, which I also got for nothing.

      It's curious how tastes do keep changing even as you age past the point where you think it would still happen. My gaming tastes have changed a lot since 2015, too. Probably more than my tastes in other entertainment. I might do a post about that, some time.

      Delete
  5. Well, now I'm terribly curious so I thought I'd look at my own Kickstarters and see what all I've backed in the past.

    Calcula's LVL UP, a comic by Fred Perry revolving around Final Fantasy XI. I enjoyed this one a lot.
    A blu-ray set of the anime "Bubblegum Crisis". I already knew I liked this.
    La-Mulana 2. I never actually got around to playing either La Mulana game, although I really should at some point.
    Hover: Revolt of Gamers. Never played this either and it frankly feels a little embarrassing now to list, but at the time it looked very Jet Set Radio.
    A "Classic Game Room" review collection, again no regrets.
    And "Cindr", a card game about dating dragons on the internet.

    All of these were successful, and all were delivered to me more or less on-time.
    I feel like the lesson is that I should perhaps back more Kickstarters...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Kickstarter works really well for physical products and projects of any kind that have a clearly defined and finite scope. The problem with mmorpgs isn't just the sheer size of them but also their open-endedness. Almost by definition, an mmorpg can expand infinitely. They never end and they have no boundaries. They're the worst possible fit for a time-limited, fixed budget fundraising platform.

      I've not backed a couple of projects I later kind of wish I had because when they released and I went to try to buy them, they weren't generally available. I've also backed several projects that looked very viable but which have failed to fund. I might have to go look and see what else is out there because as you say, it's a pretty sucessful system if you pick right.

      Delete

Wider Two Column Modification courtesy of The Blogger Guide